The Double Threat: How Conflict and Climate Change Disrupt Agricultural Input Use

Jan 29, 2026 | Rajalakshmi Nirmal
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We often talk about war and weather as separate disasters. But for a farmer, they are a combined force. New research shows that conflict doesn't just disrupt a single harvest; it destroys the economic systems and the very soil that families need to survive an unpredictable climate. A study conducted in Ethiopia and recently published in Agricultural Economics (2026) by IFPRI researchers, undertaken as part of the CGIAR’s Policy Innovations, Breeding for Tomorrow, and Food Frontiers and Security Science Programs, reveals that conflict severely disrupts  agricultural progress, specifically by targeting the tools farmers need to be resilient. To solve this, we need a strategy that treats agricultural productivity as a pillar of national security.

The study finds that farm input usage including fertilizers and improved seeds, plummets during unrest due to a total systemic breakdown. Broken infrastructure and blocked transport routes drive transaction costs to unaffordable levels, while the withdrawal of credit providers in high-risk zones leaves smallholders unable to finance their planting seasons. When conflict persists beyond two years, even traditional practices like applying organic manure or compost cease due to physical insecurity, causing the land itself to degrade from the inside out.