The Qosh Tepa Canal and Water Scarcity in Central Asia
Publisher: Climate Diplomacy
Date: 2026
Topics: Renewable Resources
Countries: Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
The Amu Darya is critical to the economies and livelihoods of four nations across water-stressed central Asia. Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal, designed to divert water from the river to its arid northern provinces, is expected to be operational by 2028 and to significantly squeeze the prevailing water use patterns in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Whereas Afghanistan perceives the canal as a legitimate development tool for a country historically excluded from proportionate access to the river’s potential benefits, downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have, over many decades, built key parts of their political economies around using the full extent of the Amu Darya’s water resources (Sabonis-Helf 2026). A sudden change in access to this water without an institutional mechanism for dealing with the consequences could destabilize the region.