Predicting Public Attitudes Toward Climate Action and Environmental Integration: A Machine Learning Analysis of Survey Data in Yemen

Jeannine Valcour, Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security (United States)

Yemen is one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises, where years of armed conflict have
compounded already serious environmental problems including water scarcity, pollution, and
extreme weather. In this context, many Yemenis face a difficult situation: they depend heavily on
natural resources to survive, yet those resources are rapidly disappearing. This raises an
important question — when people are struggling to meet basic needs, do they still support
efforts to protect the environment through formal policy?
Previous research has generally suggested that people who rely on natural resources for their
livelihoods tend to resist environmental regulation because it threatens their economic security.
This study challenges that assumption by arguing that the relationship is more complicated,
especially in conflict-affected settings where government institutions have largely broken down.
Using survey data from 3,694 Yemenis collected across 13 governorates between 2023 and 2024,
this study uses machine learning classification methods to predict two outcomes: whether
individuals support integrating environmental protections into Yemen's peace negotiations, and
how urgently individuals feel environmental action needs to happen at all.
This study tests two related hypotheses. First, it hypothesizes that people who feel most
threatened by environmental problems but have nowhere to turn for help will be the most likely
to support bringing environmental issues into peace talks. Second, it hypothesizes that the
strongest driver of how urgently people want environmental action is not who they are or where
they live, but whether they have personally experienced environmental harm.
Together, these two hypotheses ask related but different questions. The first is about who
channels environmental concern into support for policy. The second is about where that concern
comes from in the first place. By examining both, this study aims to offer a clearer picture of
how people living through conflict and environmental crisis think about environmental
protection, and what that means for efforts to build lasting peace. The findings have practical
implications for peacebuilders and policymakers working in conflict zones, suggesting that
environmental concerns represent a genuine and underutilized entry point for building public
support around peace efforts.