Digital Hydrohegemony: Technological Governance and the Reconfiguration of Power in Transboundary River Systems

Natosha Hoduski, Indiana University (United States)

The hydrohegemony framework has been used to analyze power dynamics in transboundary basins by, traditionally, focusing on geographic position, material power, bargaining power, and ideational power. This paper extends the Zeitoun and Warner framework to address a critical and growing contemporary blind spot: the rapid digitization of hydraulic systems and river system management. We introduce "hydro-technological capacity" as a distinct fifth dimension of power to fill this void. Integrating digital architecture into critical infrastructure creates both avenues for efficiency and cooperation but also latent critical security threats, e.g., cyber-physical vulnerabilities, that fundamentally reconfigure basin dynamics. Rather than functioning exclusively as a depoliticized pathway to efficiency, modernization creates new avenues to exercise power and perform counter-hegemonic contestation. We explore this structural shift through three interconnected concepts. First, we identify a "fleet in being" effect, where the credible threat of digital disruption serves as a non-kinetic negotiating currency. Second, the "Glass Giant" paradox demonstrates how infrastructural modernization actually expands a state's attack surface, potentially making materially powerful actors structurally vulnerable and, thus, susceptible to disruption by counterhegemonic actors. And finally, we examine the grey zone of digital diplomacy, where attribution ambiguity empowers non-state and covertly state-sponsored actors to operate below the threshold of formal conflict while still utilizing water resources and associated hydraulic infrastructure to contest the status quo. Using comparative case studies across diverse geopolitical contexts, including the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe, this research updates hydrohegemony for an era where water control is inextricably linked to digital integration and capacity.